Futures Working Group Derivatives analysis from traders, for traders.

Futures Working Group

Derivatives analysis from traders, for traders.

Latest Articles

Before the SPAN File Changes: How One Desk Front-Runs Exchange Margin Hikes
Execution Strategy

Before the SPAN File Changes: How One Desk Front-Runs Exchange Margin Hikes

Margin hikes don't arrive unannounced — they follow a rhythm any trader can learn to anticipate. Here's how our working group maps CME notice timing, previews SPAN parameter shifts, and restructures books before the exchange reprices your leverage.

Carry Trades Ranked: From Sleeping Pill to Adrenaline Shot
Trading Setups

Carry Trades Ranked: From Sleeping Pill to Adrenaline Shot

Six spreads the working group actually trades, ranked by how much stomach they demand. Honest notes on margin efficiency, holding periods, and exactly how each one blows up.

Five Hundred Ounces of Regret: A Micro Gold Liquidation, Reconstructed
Execution Strategy

Five Hundred Ounces of Regret: A Micro Gold Liquidation, Reconstructed

A 12-year trading career nearly ended not on volatility but on the margin ladder — 500 micro gold contracts, easy leverage, and a stop that never got honored. An opinionated postmortem with five checks every retail trader should run before adding a new contract.

Cattle Versus Hogs: Inside the Protein Spread Three of Our Traders Refuse to Retire
Trading Setups

Cattle Versus Hogs: Inside the Protein Spread Three of Our Traders Refuse to Retire

Three members of the collective sit down to dissect the live cattle–lean hog relative value trade they've run through multiple cycles. Seasonal drivers, feed-cost linkages, and the 2024 stretch where the setup finally broke.

The Outright Trap: Why the Collective Trades Relationships Instead of Direction
Trading Setups

The Outright Trap: Why the Collective Trades Relationships Instead of Direction

Outright directional futures positions are where retail accounts go to die — over-margined, headline-exposed, and hostage to every macro gust. Seven spread structures the collective actually runs, from the crude crack to the soybean old-crop/new-crop, with entry logic, margin math, and the failure modes that catch newcomers.

The Liquidity Desert Between Chicago's Closes: An Overnight Session Survival Guide
Execution Strategy

The Liquidity Desert Between Chicago's Closes: An Overnight Session Survival Guide

Trading Globex after the pit hours end means thinner books, wider spreads, and margin mechanics that don't behave like the daytime market. We sat down with desk traders who make their living in the overnight session to map where the liquidity actually goes — and how they keep their accounts alive while most of the country sleeps.

Read the Curve Before You Read the Tape: Five Term Structures That Frame Every Session
Trading Setups

Read the Curve Before You Read the Tape: Five Term Structures That Frame Every Session

Before the opening bell, the futures curves have already told you a story about positioning, storage economics, and carry. This walkthrough covers the five term structures worth checking every morning — and a two-minute checklist to turn them into a directional bias.

The Morning My Account Blinked Red: A Crude Oil Postmortem and the Three Rules That Followed
Execution Strategy

The Morning My Account Blinked Red: A Crude Oil Postmortem and the Three Rules That Followed

Every veteran trader carries one loss they never fully shake. Mine came on a crude oil position that cost roughly $50,000 and taught me more about risk discipline than a decade of winning trades. Here is the postmortem — and the three rules that came out of it.

When Chicago Sleeps: Reading the Grain Basket's Overnight Order Flow
Trading Setups

When Chicago Sleeps: Reading the Grain Basket's Overnight Order Flow

The overnight grain session is not a quieter version of the day pit — it is a structurally different market with its own liquidity map, its own catalysts, and its own repeatable setups. We break down the mechanics and outline three night-session approaches for corn and soybeans.

Two Traders, One Winner: The Position-Sizing Debate That Splits the Futures Floor
Execution Strategy

Two Traders, One Winner: The Position-Sizing Debate That Splits the Futures Floor

Pyramiding into winners and scaling out for consistency are the two rival philosophies of futures position management. Drawing on anonymized case studies across account tiers, we argue the choice is less about strategy and more about what your account can survive.

Behind the Roll: Five Veteran Approaches to Managing Treasury Futures Expiries
Execution Strategy

Behind the Roll: Five Veteran Approaches to Managing Treasury Futures Expiries

Rolling ZN, ZB, and ZF positions is where many otherwise sound books leak basis points. We asked five professional traders to walk through their roll calendars, liquidity windows, and the execution errors they've learned to avoid.

Fed Day Is a Different Market: Seven Intraday Setups for FOMC Sessions
Trading Setups

Fed Day Is a Different Market: Seven Intraday Setups for FOMC Sessions

FOMC days obey a different set of rules than ordinary sessions. From the 2:00 PM head-fake to the post-Powell repricing in SOFR futures, here are seven setups that exist only on Fed days — with entry logic and risk parameters for each.